Virginia Military Inst

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	302.0
Current RPI:	302
Expected SOS:	339
Current SOS:	339
Current Record:	11-17
Expected Record:	11-17
Current Conf Record:	9-9
Expected Conf Record:	9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-10
Current OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC RPI:	325
Expected OOC SOS:	320

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-17	302.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia Military Inst.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	The Citadel (330.0)	SC	A	84-76	L	0%
11-11	Army (205.0)	Pat	N	74-80	L	0%
11-15	Virginia Tech (177.0)	ACC	A	95-80	L	0%
11-21	Old Dominion (318.0)	CAA	A	71-76	W	100%
11-24	Elon (174.0)	SC	H	90-81	W	100%
11-28	West Virginia (146.0)	B12	A	94-69	L	0%
12-1	Morgan St. (236.0)	MEAC	H	80-81	L	0%
12-8	Wright St. (129.0)	Horz	A	92-59	L	0%
12-22	George Washington (147.0)	A10	A	76-67	L	0%
1-5	Presbyterian (340.0)	BSth	A	77-86	W	100%
1-9	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	H	82-69	W	100%
1-12	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	H	72-54	W	100%
1-16	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	H	76-57	W	100%
1-19	Coastal Carolina (259.0)	BSth	A	72-49	L	0%
1-23	High Point (249.0)	BSth	A	96-69	L	0%
1-26	Gardner Webb (194.0)	BSth	H	49-63	L	0%
1-30	Radford (316.0)	BSth	A	69-70	W	100%
2-6	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	A	60-93	W	100%
2-8	NC Asheville (217.0)	BSth	H	79-90	L	0%
2-13	Radford (316.0)	BSth	H	79-82	L	0%
2-16	Campbell (289.0)	BSth	A	87-78	L	0%
2-19	High Point (249.0)	BSth	H	67-78	L	0%
2-21	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	A	92-69	L	0%
2-23	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	A	112-74	L	0%
2-26	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	A	66-83	W	100%
3-2	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	H	94-80	W	100%
3-7	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	N	90-86	W	100%
3-9	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	N	71-65	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia Military Inst's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Virginia Military Inst's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Virginia Military Inst.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	26.32	26.32	42.31	42.31	-4.05	-4.05
Longwood	BSth	6.09	6.09	21.43	21.43	-3.48	-3.48
Liberty	BSth	4.55	4.55	40.00	40.00	-0.91	-0.91
Radford	BSth	4.42	4.42	33.33	33.33	-1.47	-1.47
High Point	BSth	4.40	4.40	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	4.39	4.39	35.71	35.71	-1.25	-1.25
Charleston Southern	BSth	4.33	4.33	53.85	53.85	0.33	0.33
Gardner Webb	BSth	2.64	2.64	58.62	58.62	0.46	0.46
Winthrop	BSth	2.62	2.62	40.74	40.74	-0.48	-0.48
Presbyterian	BSth	2.59	2.59	17.86	17.86	-1.66	-1.66
NC Asheville	BSth	2.58	2.58	42.86	42.86	-0.37	-0.37
Coastal Carolina	BSth	2.54	2.54	40.00	40.00	-0.51	-0.51
The Citadel	SC	2.00	2.00	18.52	18.52	-1.26	-1.26
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.94	1.94	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
West Virginia	B12	1.90	1.90	38.71	38.71	-0.43	-0.43
Marist	MAAC	1.84	1.84	30.00	30.00	-0.74	-0.74
Elon	SC	1.82	1.82	65.52	65.52	0.56	0.56
Army	Pat	1.81	1.81	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Old Dominion	CAA	1.81	1.81	17.24	17.24	-1.19	-1.19
Virginia Tech	ACC	1.81	1.81	38.71	38.71	-0.41	-0.41
George Washington	A10	1.79	1.79	41.38	41.38	-0.31	-0.31
Wright St.	Horz	1.79	1.79	61.29	61.29	0.40	0.40
College of Charleston	SC	0.31	0.31	72.73	72.73	0.14	0.14
Appalachian St.	SC	0.27	0.27	44.83	44.83	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.24	0.24	38.71	38.71	-0.06	-0.06
William & Mary	CAA	0.24	0.24	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
NC Greensboro	SC	0.21	0.21	24.14	24.14	-0.11	-0.11
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.20	0.20	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.19	0.19	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Charlotte	A10	0.19	0.19	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Wofford	SC	0.18	0.18	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.18	0.18	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.18	0.18	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.18	0.18	76.47	76.47	0.09	0.09
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.16	0.16	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Furman	SC	0.15	0.15	17.24	17.24	-0.10	-0.10
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.15	0.15	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.15	0.15	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Austin Peay	OVC	0.15	0.15	20.69	20.69	-0.09	-0.09
Hampton	MEAC	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.15	0.15	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.15	0.15	29.63	29.63	-0.06	-0.06
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.15	0.15	20.69	20.69	-0.09	-0.09
Canisius	MAAC	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.14	0.14	80.65	80.65	0.09	0.09
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Samford	SC	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Davidson	SC	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Georgia Southern	SC	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.12	0.12	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.12	0.12	84.38	84.38	0.08	0.08
Colgate	Pat	0.12	0.12	34.38	34.38	-0.04	-0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Holy Cross	Pat	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.11	0.11	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Boston University	AE	0.10	0.10	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.09	0.09	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.09	0.09	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.09	0.09	93.75	93.75	0.08	0.08
Hofstra	CAA	0.09	0.09	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.09	0.09	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.09	0.09	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.09	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.00	10.00	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Butler	A10	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Maine	AE	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.03	-0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.03	0.03	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00